Russia Cuts 2026 Trade Surplus Forecast to $120.8B on Weaker Exports, Stronger Imports

Russia's Ministry of Economic Development lowered its 2026 trade surplus forecast to $120.8 billion, trimming export expectations to $439.1 billion and raising import projections to $318.3 billion. The revision signals a narrowing external surplus, likely reflecting softer energy prices and resilient domestic demand. This matters as a reduced surplus could pressure the ruble and constrain fiscal buffers amid ongoing sanctions.