MarketsConfirmedHighFeatured

Fed September Hike Odds Jump to 90% After Inline CPI; EUR/USD Breaks 1.16

US August inflation matched expectations, but markets now price a ~90% probability of a Fed rate hike in mid-September, up from ~60% a week ago. The shift reflects hawkish Fed communication and resilient data, pushing EUR/USD below 1.16. The move signals a clear tightening bias, with implications for global risk assets and dollar strength.

Parkietabout 10 hours agoUSCredibility 20%View source

Score Breakdown

Mosaic Score8.7

Confidence0.9

Significance0.8

Source credibility0.2

Intelligence Tags

#fed #rate-hike #inflation #eurusd #monetary-policy

Entities

countryorganizationmarket

Source

Part of 2 situations

developingMarkets8h ago

Fed Rate Hike Imminent Amidst Political Pressure on Chair Warsh

Markets are pricing a ~90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in mid-September, the first since July 2023, driven by persistent inflation and hawkish Fed communication. This move is occurring amidst significant political pressure from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, testing the central bank's independence. The exact magnitude and certainty of the hike remain unclear, as does Warsh's response to political influence.

↑ escalating·↑10 signals·USScore 5.5

activePoliticsTech7h ago