Gulf economies face double-digit GDP declines from Hormuz shock despite high oil prices

Anadolu Agency analysis indicates Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain could see double-digit GDP contractions in 2026 if a Hormuz disruption materializes, as higher oil prices fail to offset the loss of hydrocarbon export volumes and transit revenues. The report underscores the vulnerability of Gulf states to a closure or severe disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil and LNG flows. The exact scale of the shock remains uncertain, but the analysis highlights a structural risk that elevated prices cannot mitigate.