US consumer job-loss expectations hit highest since April 2020

The New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations shows the perceived probability of rising unemployment over the next year climbed to 45.3% in October, the highest since April 2020, driven by those without a college degree. Meanwhile, the perceived probability of finding a new job rose to 46.5%, the highest in about a decade, reflecting a split in consumer sentiment. This divergence suggests growing anxiety about the labor market's trajectory despite current low unemployment, which could signal softening consumer confidence and spending.

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