Global Diesel Crunch to Persist into 2027 on Refinery Constraints

Despite crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz nearing pre-war levels, global diesel supply remains constrained by refinery limitations in the Middle East and Russia, which the rest of the world cannot offset. This has driven wholesale and retail diesel prices to record highs in mid-September, with the squeeze expected to persist well into 2027. The development signals a structural supply issue that could feed into broader inflationary pressures.