World Bank models 50% global growth reduction in event of six-month US-Iran conflict

The World Bank confirms that a prolonged US-Iran kinetic conflict, particularly one exceeding six months, could reduce global growth to 1.3% by 2026 and increase inflation to 4.5%. This scenario, initially a hypothetical stress test, is now assessed by the World Bank's Chief Economist as manifesting, indicating a significant deterioration in global economic stability. The primary uncertainty remains the duration and intensity of any potential conflict.