WTO: AI Investment Offsets Iran War Impact, Global Trade to Grow 3.9% in 2026

The WTO projects global merchandise trade growth of 3.9% in 2026, more than double the 1.9% forecast earlier this year, driven by high AI investment that offsets the negative effects of the war against Iran. This marks the second consecutive year trade growth exceeds global GDP growth, though the historical 1.5-2x ratio is not expected to repeat. The forecast implies AI-driven demand is a stronger force than geopolitical conflict, but the sustainability of this offset is uncertain.