US labor supply shock lowers payroll neutral, complicates inflation: Itaú

Itaú Unibanco assesses that a US labor supply shock—driven by population aging and restrictive immigration policy—is lowering the neutral pace of job creation, biasing unemployment downward and making wage and service inflation more persistent. The analysis implies a structurally tighter labor market that complicates the Fed's inflation fight, though it is an analytical view rather than a hard data release.