Lula's Poll Lead Narrows as Lulinha Case Weighs on Re-Election Bid

Brazilian President Lula's voting intention fell for a fourth consecutive Datafolha poll, with his first-round lead over Flávio Bolsonaro shrinking to 5 points (38% vs 33%) and second-round margin tightening to 2 points (46% vs 44%). The decline is attributed to the ongoing Lulinha case, though the exact impact remains uncertain. This signals eroding political capital ahead of the 2026 election, potentially complicating Lula's legislative agenda and market confidence in fiscal policy.