PoliticsNotableCorroboratingDeveloping
6.6
Brazil 2026 runoff polls split: Flávio and Lula tied in latest national surveys
Poder360·BR·1 day ago
PoliticsConfirmedMediumDeveloping
6.4
Brazil 2026: first-round leader has never lost since 1989; Lula vs. Flávio may test trend
A statistical pattern holds in Brazilian presidential elections: since 1989, the first-round leader has always won. The upcoming tight race between Lula and Flávio could break this 37-year trend, making the outcome highly uncertain and market-relevant.
Score Breakdown
Mosaic Score6.4
Confidence0.9
Significance0.5
Source credibility0.5
Related signals
8 foundPoliticsHighCorroboratingAccelerating
8.2
Brazil 2026 runoff: Lula and Bolsonaro technically tied in latest polls
Valor Econômico·BR·about 3 hours ago
JusticeNotableConfirmedDeveloping
6.9
Brazil TSE orders removal of Lula video on Master scandal amid campaign dispute
Valor Econômico·BR·2 days ago
PoliticsNotableConfirmedDeveloping
6.5
Flávio Bolsonaro seeks electoral court ruling to bar Lula from using UN speech in campaign
El UniversoLO·BR·2 days ago
PoliticsNotableEmergingDeveloping
6.4
Lula attacks Flávio Bolsonaro as 'militiaman' in Rio campaign event
Valor Econômico·BR·about 23 hours ago
PoliticsNotableConfirmedDeveloping
6.1
Lula and Bolsonaro campaign in Minas Gerais ahead of first-round vote
Valor Econômico·BR·2 days ago
PoliticsNotableCorroboratingDeveloping
6.1
Brazil 2026: Flávio and Lula tied in hypothetical runoff polls
Poder360·BR·2 days ago
PoliticsNotableConfirmedDeveloping
6.1
Lula campaign targets loyal base, undecided voters in final stretch
Valor Econômico·BR·2 days ago