El Niño conditions expected to suppress hurricane intensity in Caribbean
The Meteorological Service of Jamaica reports that ongoing El Niño conditions are likely to mitigate the development of severe hurricanes this season. While El Niño typically increases regional temperatures and reduces rainfall, the extent to which this will offset other atmospheric variables remains subject to seasonal volatility.
Score Breakdown
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El Niño Intensification: Record Strength & Early Onset
The current El Niño event has reached 'super El Niño' status, exceeding the +2.0°C threshold in the Niño 3.4 region over a month earlier than previous benchmark events. Meteorological models indicate a 90% probability that this developing El Niño will become the strongest in 150 years, increasing the likelihood of a record-warm 2026 and driving global temperature anomalies. While expected to suppress Caribbean hurricane intensity, the precise global and regional impacts remain subject to variance.