Brazil Focus Survey: Selic forecast raised to 13.75% for 2026, rates seen higher

Brazil's Focus bulletin raised the 2026 Selic projection to 13.75%, with market participants also revising up inflation and dollar estimates while trimming GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027. This signals deteriorating expectations for the Brazilian economy, likely driven by persistent inflation and fiscal concerns. The shift implies a more hawkish monetary policy path and potential currency depreciation, which could weigh on Brazilian assets.

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