Brazil oil royalties surge on Brent price volatility and geopolitical risk premiums

Brazil collected R$ 36.5 billion in oil royalties during 1H 2026, with 26.3% of revenue attributed to price spikes linked to Middle East conflict. The realized Brent average of $92.56/barrel significantly exceeded initial IEA projections of $57.50/barrel, though export volumes declined in May following the implementation of a 12% export tax.