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8.3

Brazil runoff: Flávio 51%, Lula 49% in statistical tie

A new Indexa/Broadcast poll shows Flávio leading Lula by 2 points in Brazil's presidential runoff, within the 2.2-point margin of error, indicating a statistical tie. The race remains highly competitive with the outcome uncertain. This matters as it signals a tight contest that could hinge on late shifts in voter sentiment.

Poder3601 day agoBRCredibility 40%View source

Score Breakdown

Mosaic Score8.3
Model confidence0.7
Significance0.8
Source credibility0.4

Intelligence Tags

#brazil#presidential-election#poll#runoff#lula#flavio

Entities

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Source

Part of 2 situations

activePolitics4h ago

Brazil 2026 Presidential Runoff: Bolsonaro Leads Lula in Statistical Tie

Multiple recent polls indicate Senator Flávio Bolsonaro holds a numerical lead over incumbent Lula da Silva in Brazil's 2026 presidential runoff, with leads consistently within the margin of error. This signifies a highly competitive and uncertain election, effectively a statistical tie. The outcome remains unpredictable, with no clear frontrunner.

→ stable·5 signals·BR, USScore 6.3
activePoliticsMarkets5m ago

Brazil — 127 developments

→ stable·43 signals·BR, US, IRScore 5.4

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