Brazil poll: Tarcísio leads São Paulo governor race 44% vs Haddad 27%

A Quaest poll of 1,800 respondents (Sep 19-22, ±2pp) shows Tarcísio de Freitas leading the São Paulo gubernatorial race with 44% against Fernando Haddad's 27% in the first round. The margin suggests a likely runoff, though dynamics may shift before the election. This signals a strong incumbent advantage and potential consolidation of center-right support in Brazil's largest state.