Brazil 2026: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied ahead of first round

Polls one week before Brazil's first round show Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro within four points, inside the margin of error, a tighter race than in 2022. The narrowing gap signals a highly competitive election and potential runoff uncertainty. Outcome hinges on late undecided voters and regional turnout.