War with Iran keeps oil supply tight; Brent futures signal $100+ into 2027

Market expectations have shifted from a quick end to the U.S.-Israeli-Iran war to a prolonged conflict, with ICE Brent futures for January 2027 trading at $102.59 per barrel, indicating sustained supply tightness. The brief June ceasefire failed to resolve the conflict, and the market now prices in elevated prices through at least mid-2027. This reflects a structural reassessment of geopolitical risk and supply availability.