Market Forecasts Election-Year Dollar Demand at $12B, Double Official Estimate

Market participants expect USD 12 billion in demand during the election year, nearly double the official estimate, suggesting the government may be underestimating pre-election retail dollarization. The government projects a theoretical cushion of USD 75 billion, but city reports and BCRA data warn of potential currency turbulence. This discrepancy raises risks of FX volatility and policy missteps in an election context.