Model Forecasts Earth to Breach 2°C Warming Threshold in 2027

A statistical model projects that El Niño conditions will push global temperatures above 2°C above pre-industrial levels during the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2027. The forecast is based on model simulations and is not yet corroborated by direct observations. If realized, this would mark the first sustained breach of the Paris Agreement threshold, with significant implications for climate policy and extreme weather risk.