Tigray peace deal erodes as fears of renewed war grow in Ethiopia
Four years after the Pretoria agreement ended a brutal two-year war, tensions in Ethiopia's Tigray region are escalating, raising fears of a return to armed conflict. The fragile peace deal appears to be unraveling, with reports of troop movements and political deadlock. A relapse would destabilize the Horn of Africa and could trigger a humanitarian crisis.
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Ethiopia: Tigray Peace Deal Erosion and Renewed Conflict Risk
Renewed fighting in and around Tigray is eroding the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, raising the risk of a broader escalation and a return to armed conflict. Reports indicate troop movements and political deadlock, with emerging claims of shifting alliances among former adversaries. Confidence in the detailed breakdown of the ceasefire and specific alliance shifts is Medium-Low.