El Niño forecast 'very strong', to peak by year-end, lasting until February

Meteorological agencies project a very strong El Niño peaking late 2026 and persisting into February 2027, with significant risks to agriculture, health systems, and energy supply. The forecast is based on model consensus but carries inherent uncertainty in magnitude and regional impacts. This raises the likelihood of global crop stress, heat-related health pressures, and energy demand spikes.