Brazil long-term rates drop 130bp as Bolsonaro leads Lula in first round

First-round election results show Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula, triggering a sharp market rally with long-term yields falling over 130 basis points. The market interprets a potential Bolsonaro presidency as more fiscally conservative than the current administration, though the outcome remains uncertain pending a likely runoff. This shift signals a repricing of Brazil's fiscal and political risk.