developing→ StableTradeMarkets

Russian Trade Policy: NNE Exports Rise, Agricultural Export Duties Increase

Russia's non-resource non-energy (NNE) exports increased by 6.9% to $67.15 billion in the first five months of 2026, indicating a continued shift in export composition despite sanctions.

Impact

7.6

Confidence

High

Evidence

5 sig · 2 src

Trajectory

→ Stable

Geo

RU UZ KZ

First seen Jul 24·Updated Jul 26·Synthesized Jul 26

Export brief

Assessment

High confidence — 4/5 signals corroborated across 2 independent sources

Russia's non-resource non-energy (NNE) exports increased by 6.9% to $67.15 billion in the first five months of 2026, indicating a continued shift in export composition despite sanctions. Concurrently, Russia has increased export duties on sunflower oil for August and is considering a similar increase for soybeans, reflecting state efforts to regulate domestic agricultural markets. Bilateral trade with Kazakhstan also grew by over 4% in the same period.

Why it matters — These developments highlight Russia's adaptation to sanctions through diversified exports and regional trade, alongside state intervention in commodity markets to manage domestic supply and pricing.

Established

·Confirmed: Russian NNE exports grew 6.9% to $67.15 billion from January to May 2026.
·Confirmed: Russia increased the sunflower oil export duty to 7,700 RUB/t for August.
·Confirmed: Russia-Kazakhstan bilateral trade increased by over 4% in the first five months of 2026.
·Claimed: The Russian Oil and Fat Union proposes increasing the soybean export duty to 30% by September 2026.
·Confirmed: Uzbekistan's GDP grew 8.5% in H1 2026, with credit rating upgrades from Moody's and Fitch.

Indicators to watch

→Government decision on proposed soybean export duty increase.
→Further changes in Russian agricultural export duties.
→Trends in Russia's NNE export growth in subsequent reporting periods.

Evidence

Confirmed · 2 independent sources · 5 signals · 2 independent sources

Central claim — Russia-Kazakhstan bilateral trade volume increases by over 4% in first five months of 202620% on claim · mixed evidence

Corroborated1 · 1 src · best low 48%

Jul 25Russia-Kazakhstan bilateral trade volume increases by over 4% in first five months of 2026Interfax · T3

Context4 · 2 src · best low 58%— related coverage — does not support the central claim

Jul 24Russia increases sunflower oil export duty to 7,700 RUB/t for AugustInterfax · T3
Jul 24Uzbekistan reports 8.5% GDP growth in H1 2026 amid credit rating upgradesEuronews · T3
Jul 24Russian Oil and Fat Union proposes increasing soybean export duty to 30% by September 2026Interfax · T3
Jul 24Russian non-resource non-energy exports grew 6.9% in first five months of 2026Interfax · T3

Topics russia · exports · trade · economy · nne · gdp · investment · credit-rating · uzbekistan · macroeconomics · agriculture · export

Discussion

…