Bolsonaro leads Brazil election, signals closer ties with Milei

Flávio Bolsonaro secured 47% of the first-round vote, leading Lula da Silva (45%) and forcing a runoff on October 25. This outcome triggered a significant market rally, with Brazilian interest rate futures plunging and long-term yields falling over 130 basis points, reflecting investor optimism for a more fiscally conservative administration. The final outcome remains uncertain, with implications for Brazil's domestic policy, foreign relations, and market sentiment.