IEA Cuts 2026 Oil Supply Outlook by 1.4M bpd; Gulf Recovery Delayed to 2027

The IEA has revised its 2026 global oil supply forecast down by 1.4 million bpd, now expecting a 5.7 million bpd decline year-on-year, citing delayed recovery of Gulf production until 2027. Global oil stocks fell at 3.1 million bpd in August, indicating tightening balances. This marks a significant deterioration from the prior month's outlook, signaling sustained supply constraints and potential upward pressure on prices.