active→ StableGeopoliticsDefenseConflict
Iran — 70 developments
Impact
5.8
Confidence
Medium
Evidence
117 sig · 61 src
Trajectory
→ Stable
Geo
IR US CN
First seen Jul 24·Updated Sep 9·Synthesized Sep 9
Assessment
Medium confidence: 1 signal actively dispute the read. Treat as contested
Evidence
Confirmed · 61 independent sources · 117 signals · 61 independent sources
Corroborated58 · 37 src · best low 62%
- Sep 9South Korea weighs Hormuz military role amid US-Iran pressure
- Sep 9UK expands Iran sanctions to energy, finance, shipping; Azerbaijan gas exemptions
- Sep 9Seoul weighs Hormuz Strait role, cites national interest, public consensus
- Sep 9US sinks 5 Iranian tankers; Tehran fires 20 rockets at Jordan in retaliation
- Sep 9Iran Strikes US Assets in Jordan and Hormuz in Retaliation for Tanker Attacks
- Sep 9Iran fires rockets at Jordan, claims strikes on eight Gulf vessels after US attack on tankers
- Sep 9Iran Signals Readiness to Escalate Conflict with U.S. as Economic Pressure Mounts
- Sep 9US midterms enter decisive phase; Democrats lead polls amid inflation, Iran war discontent
+ 50 more
- Sep 9Trump to headline Republican convention ahead of US midterms
- Sep 9US destroys five Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz; Iran strikes Jordan in retaliation
- Sep 9Jordan intercepts 18 of 20 Iranian ballistic missiles; no casualties reported
- Sep 9Iran Oil Exports Collapse as Hormuz Disruption Enters Seventh Month
- Sep 8US destroys five Iran oil tankers after attacks on American warship; Iran warns of strikes on US bases
- Sep 8US strikes 5 Iranian tankers after missile attack on warship; Iran retaliates on Jordan
- Sep 8Iran strikes tankers off Kuwait and Bahrain after US destroys five Iranian oil vessels
- Sep 8US destroys five Iranian tankers after IRGC attacks; Kuwait, Bahrain warned
- Sep 8US strikes 5 Iranian tankers after IRGC missile attack on Navy warship
- Sep 8US and Iran Trade Strikes on Oil Tankers Near Strait of Hormuz
- Sep 8CENTCOM destroys five Iranian tankers after failed IRGC missile attacks on US warship
- Sep 8US strikes five oil tankers in Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz; Iran threatens retaliation
- Sep 8US strikes Iranian tankers after missile attacks on Navy warship
- Sep 8US strikes Iranian tankers after missile attack on warship in Strait of Hormuz
- Sep 8Second tanker hit near Iran's Jask port; crew evacuated
- Sep 8Iran attacks US Navy ships in Persian Gulf; no damage reported
- Sep 8Iran War Live: Explosions on Kharg Island, Tanker Sunk
- Sep 8Iran's IRGC Seizes US Drone in Strait of Hormuz, Escalating Tensions
- Sep 8UK Moves to Reinstate Iran Sanctions Over Hostile Actions
- Sep 8South Korea dispatches fact-finding team to Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran war
- Sep 8Panama Canal tightens transit limits amid El Niño, rerouted traffic
- Sep 8Huawei faces US trial over Iran sanctions evasion and trade secret theft
- Sep 8UK Publishes Legislation for Tougher Sanctions Against Iran
- Sep 8Iran Confirms Hormuz Control, US Announces Strait Open Amid Military Escalation
- Sep 8Iran unveils upgraded ballistic missile, warns US warships of preemptive strikes
- Sep 8Trump Unpopularity Threatens GOP Congressional Majorities Ahead of Midterms
- Sep 8Iran Threatens US with 'Economic War' and Missile Launch at Warships
- Sep 8Trump Unpopularity Threatens Republican Midterm Majorities as Campaign Sprint Begins
- Sep 8Iran threatens US with new missiles, plans Gulf exclusion zone after tanker strikes
- Sep 8US Warns Iran Against Strait of Hormuz Blockade Threat
- Sep 7US-Iran strikes disrupt Strait of Hormuz, oil hits six-week high
- Sep 7Panama Canal chief weighs further transit cuts as El Nino drought persists
- Sep 7US strike hits wedding in southern Iran; probe underway
- Sep 7US probe: Iran wedding airstrike likely errant bomb, killed 4
- Sep 7US Navy secretly clears mines from Strait of Hormuz; threat of re-laying persists
- Sep 7Iran warns of 'painful response' to further attacks amid sanctions pressure
- Sep 7Iran warns South Korea against military deployment in Strait of Hormuz
- Sep 7Global ship fuel shortage worsens as Iran and Ukraine wars tighten crude supply
- Sep 7US Navy SEALs secretly clear mines from Strait of Hormuz over four months
- Sep 7US-Iran Retaliatory Strikes on Shipping Cut Hormuz Traffic, Oil Rises
- Sep 7Iran Announces New Persian Gulf 'Exclusion Zone,' Threatens Sanctions on Vessels
- Sep 7Iran warns US energy assets exposed, vows retaliation for strikes
- Sep 6US Energy Chief: Navy to Defend Hormuz Until Iran Backs Down
- Sep 6US Energy Secretary: Iran Nuclear Deal Unlikely, Military Option Possible
- Sep 6US Energy Secretary Signals Possible Military Option on Iran Nuclear Program
- Sep 6Iraqi Ruling Coalition Warns of Sanctions Fallout, Defies US Pressure on Iran
- Sep 5US sanctions and oil blockade pressure Iran, sources say economy straining
- Sep 5Pentagon dissent grows over Hegseth's leadership amid Iran war
- Sep 5Pentagon polygraphs 50 staff after ammunition shortage leaks
- Sep 5Pentagon polygraphs 50 JCS staff in leak probe
Single-source9 · 7 src · best low 61%
- Sep 8Huawei faces New York criminal trial over trade secret theft and bank fraud
- Sep 8Missile strike hits Iranian tanker near Jarg Island; Iran seizes US drone, threatens bases
- Sep 8Huawei faces US racketeering trial after eight-year legal battle
- Sep 8US and Iran exchange missile fire in waters around Iran; CENTCOM strikes IRGC vessels
- Sep 7Iran unveils improved Qassem Basir missile, cites preventive doctrine; US rejects Hormuz exclusion zone
- Sep 7Mojtaba Khamenei Six Months as Iran Supreme Leader, No Public Appearances
- Sep 7Shipping Fuel Oil Shortage Looms as Refiners Prioritize Diesel
- Sep 6Hegseth Purges Pentagon Civilian Leadership Amid Iran War Strains
Emerging49 · 33 src · best low 60%
- Sep 9Iran Retaliates: Strikes on US Ships and Tankers in Strait of Hormuz
- Sep 9Iran IRGC claims strikes on 20 US vessels in Strait of Hormuz; Jordan intercepts 18 missiles
- Sep 9CENTCOM destroys Iranian ship in Gulf of Oman after IRGC attack on US warship
- Sep 9US destroys five Iranian tankers in Persian Gulf; Russia, Ukraine trade drone strikes
- Sep 9Iran Claims Attacks on Two US Vessels and Eight Tankers in Regional Waters
- Sep 9IRGC Claims Attacks on US Warships and Tankers in Strait of Hormuz
- Sep 9Iran's IRGC Claims Attacks on US Ships and Oil Tankers in Persian Gulf
- Sep 9Iran's IRGC claims capture of US underwater drone near Strait of Hormuz
+ 41 more
- Sep 9Iran Condemns US Strikes on Its Commercial Vessels in Persian Gulf
- Sep 9Iran Threatens US Bases in Jordan After Gulf Tanker Strikes
- Sep 8Iran's IRGC Claims Attack on US Base in Jordan in Retaliation for Tanker Strikes
- Sep 8EU strikes Iranian tankers near Hormuz; Iran threatens Kuwait, Bahrain shipping
- Sep 8US strikes Iranian tankers near Hormuz; Tehran vows retaliation
- Sep 8US asserts full control of Strait of Hormuz as South Korea weighs naval deployment
- Sep 8Explosions Reported on Iranian Island of Chárg near Džásk; Cause Unknown
- Sep 8Iran launches 20 missiles at US bases in Jordan, first direct strike
- Sep 8South Korea weighs Hormuz Strait deployment amid US pressure
- Sep 8US strikes Iranian tanker off Kharg Island; blast reported near Jask
- Sep 8IRGC Threatens Oil Tanker Strikes in Kuwait, Bahrain After US Attack on Iranian Vessel
- Sep 8Iran IRGC Navy threatens strikes on ships near Bahrain and Kuwait
- Sep 8Iran threatens to target oil tankers in Kuwait and Bahrain ports in retaliation for US strikes
- Sep 8Iranian Tanker Attacked Off Kharg Island; US Missile Alleged
- Sep 8Explosions reported on Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal
- Sep 8Explosions reported at Iran's Kharg Island and Jask amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
- Sep 8Iran's IRGC claims detention of US unmanned submarine with advanced tech
- Sep 8Iran claims seizure of US unmanned submarine in Strait of Hormuz
- Sep 8IRGC Seizes US Unmanned Underwater Vehicle Near Strait of Hormuz
- Sep 8Seoul Weighs Hormuz Military Role Amid US Pressure, Tehran Warnings
- Sep 8Strait of Hormuz passage rules contested as Iran-US tensions escalate
- Sep 8Iran downs US MQ-1 drone over Strait of Hormuz, Fars reports
- Sep 8Iran strikes US warship with new missile, declares no-go zone in Gulf
- Sep 8Iran Threatens Military Escalation to Break US Oil Blockade Ahead of Midterms
- Sep 8Iran claims advanced missile strike on US warships, threatens economic warfare
- Sep 8Iran warns US 'economic warfare' could trigger Gulf maritime exclusion zone
- Sep 7Iran Threatens Full Hormuz Blockade Over US Sanctions
- Sep 7Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Jamenei Injured, Absent from Public for Six Months
- Sep 7Iran Threatens Retaliation Against U.S. Energy Firms if Washington Strikes Its Facilities
- Sep 7Panama Canal weighs tighter transit limits as El Niño deepens drought
- Sep 7Iran Deploys New Anti-Ship Missile Against US Navy in Persian Gulf
- Sep 7Panama Canal faces water-driven traffic cuts amid shipping strain
- Sep 7Iran warns US energy firms face strikes if Washington attacks tankers
- Sep 7US forces strike Iranian tankers after IRGC missiles target US Navy ships in Strait of Hormuz
- Sep 6Iran to declare restricted maritime zone beyond Strait of Hormuz
- Sep 6US Unveils 'Operation Economic Outcast' Sanctions Campaign on August 24
- Sep 6Iran to Establish No-Fly Zone Outside Strait of Hormuz
- Sep 6Iran to Declare No-Go Zone Near Strait of Hormuz, Escalating Gulf Standoff
- Sep 6Iran to declare restricted zone outside Strait of Hormuz from US naval blockade line
- Sep 6IRGC warns US economic blockade will backfire, cost Washington more than Tehran
- Sep 5Vance: US alone can secure Strait of Hormuz, warns of energy crisis
Disputed1 · 1 src · best low 60%
Discussion
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