MarketsEmergingHighDevelopingFeatured

World Bank warns of global growth contraction to 1.3% in 2026 amid potential Iran conflict

The World Bank projects a significant global economic slowdown to 1.3% growth in 2026 if a prolonged war involving Iran occurs. The forecast highlights systemic risks including elevated interest rates, food insecurity in developing nations, and unsustainable debt levels in emerging markets.

InfoMoneyabout 17 hours agoIRCredibility 47%View source

Score Breakdown

Mosaic Score10.0

Confidence0.5

Significance0.8

Source credibility0.5

Intelligence Tags

#world bank #economic growth #iran #geopolitical risk #macroeconomics

Entities

countryorganization

Source

Part of 2 situations

activeGeopoliticsMarkets2m ago

Iran — 7 developments

→ stable·41 signals·IR, FR, US +7Score 7.5

activeMarketsGeopolitics12m ago

World Bank Projects Global Economic Contraction Amid US-Iran Conflict Escalation

The World Bank confirms that a prolonged US-Iran kinetic conflict, particularly one exceeding six months, could reduce global growth to 1.3% by 2026 and increase inflation to 4.5%. This scenario, initially a hypothetical stress test, is now assessed by the World Bank's Chief Economist as manifesting, indicating a significant deterioration in global economic stability. The primary uncertainty remains the duration and intensity of any potential conflict.

↑ escalating·6 signals·IR, USScore 7.2