Skip to main content
developing↑ EscalatingClimateHealth

Climate Change Threatens Coffee Production and Foodborne Pathogen Transmission

Rising global temperatures are confirmed to threaten the long-term stability of coffee cultivation, impacting supply chains and producer livelihoods.

Impact
7.5
Confidence
Medium-High
Evidence
2 sig · 2 src
Trajectory
↑ Escalating
First seen Jul 23·Updated Jul 23·Synthesized Jul 23
Export brief

Assessment

Medium-High confidence1/2 signals corroborated across 2 independent sources

Rising global temperatures are confirmed to threaten the long-term stability of coffee cultivation, impacting supply chains and producer livelihoods. Concurrently, increasing temperatures are projected to elevate the prevalence and geographic range of food-borne pathogens, specifically Cyclospora, highlighting systemic vulnerabilities in public health infrastructure. The precise timeline and full scope of these climate-induced shifts remain uncertain.

Why it matters — These trends pose significant risks to global food security, economic stability in agricultural sectors, and public health systems.

Established

  • ·Confirmed: Rising global temperatures threaten coffee cultivation viability.
  • ·Confirmed: Climate change creates uncertainty for coffee supply chains and producer livelihoods.
  • ·Claimed: Rising global temperatures are projected to increase the prevalence and geographic range of food-borne pathogens like Cyclospora.
  • ·Claimed: Systemic vulnerabilities exist in food safety infrastructure and public health preparedness for climate-driven disease shifts.

Indicators to watch

  • Changes in coffee commodity prices and regional production yields.
  • Reported increases in foodborne pathogen outbreaks, particularly Cyclospora, in new geographic areas.

Evidence

Confirmed · 2 independent sources · 2 signals · 2 independent sources

Central claimClimate change impacts on global coffee production viability50% on claim

Corroborated1 · 1 src · best low 48%
Context1 · 1 src · best low 42%

Topics agriculture · climate change · commodities · supply chain · public health · food safety · pathogens · cyclospora

Discussion

Sign in to add a note, contribute a source, or challenge the assessment.